Wowzah!

The day the EUR/JPY fell off the cliff…(the USD/JPY doesn’t look much different).

I was long.  <—- Yes, I was long at the top…actually above the top (128.25 to be exact.)  I am down 561 pips as we speak.  I don’t trade with set stop losses – I use a mental one and a gut feeling.  Unfortunately I wasn’t near a chart when this happened in less than an hour.  I doubled my long position @ 123.54 (currently down 94 pips).

What I see now – rapid and erratic price movement to the south side (everyone knows the south side of town is the dangerous part of town).  If I was starting with no positions in, I would buy here.  Price is winding and winding with a few consecutive inside bars…Price has been stretched to the downside and if ANYONE was looking to get in long, this is the spot where they will do it.

This will be my truest test of my Martingale Strategy.  I am not fully convinced of it, but I said I would use it until it broke…

I’ll keep you all informed of my progress and let you know what I am doing…I might double it again if we see a huge move down…but we’ll see.

Peace…

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On my mind…

I recently watched the HBO John Adams Series this past weekend.  What an inspiring show.  I’ve always liked Paul Giamatti, but now I love him – one of my new favorite actors.  If you haven’t seen it, see it.  If you have seen it, watch it again.

A few phrases on my mind since are:

“Join, or Die” (the new Union Soccer Team in Philly’s tag line)
“Liberty or Death”
“Unite or Die”
“Don’t Tread on Me”

Simple, yet so powerful…  Mull on those for a while and ask yourself this, “Would I use such definitive terms when talking about my freedom and my country?”

 

State of the Union 2010 – Call and Response

What did you think?  Was it political posturing or a contrite apology with a new resolve to move forward?

I couldn’t help but hear contradicting statements throughout the speech.  Still too much campaigning and not enough action.  For example, he would talk about bipartisanship and in the next breath blame the GOP.  He would talk about spending 30 Billion and 8 Billion and then say how we need to freeze Federal Discretionary spending, how he has a plan to save 20 Billion next year.

Don’t get me wrong, President Obama is an incredible orator and I have to say I caught myself “falling” for him, but it is my duty as a blogger to take a step back and analyze from as much an unbiased position as possible.

So far, under his own admission, Obama’s presidency and administration has not delivered on its promise made on the campaign trail.  I understand that it is a big bull to tackle and won’t be completely done on his watch, but we haven’t even SEEN the little glimmer of change that IS needed.  Let’s talk about reforming our government and the way it operates, not just what it talks about.  That is real change, that is the change that the American people are clamoring for – that is the change that they voted for.

Now, as a member of the American public, I have the right to say this – we have very short memories.  If Obama can turn this ship and get us heading in a direction of prosperity then this last year will easily be forgotten.  However, he is under a time crunch, nothing will leave a lasting memory like losing a bunch of seats during this upcoming mid-term election.  One already slipped through the cracks with Brown winning in Massachusetts.  This might have been the best thing that happened to the Democrats – a possible wake up call.  It’s like losing the last regular season game and realizing your not invincible and working 10 times harder to get back on top.  This loss could have been that wake up call.

As for the GOP, their response was predictable.  Nothing better or worse than the Presidents, just more posturing.  More politics and very little commitment to action.  I have to admit that I am coming from a GOP background, but have stepped back from any type of political designation.  However, I do have to say that I am dissapointed in the GOP.  I don’t like how they have become the party of “no.”  They are just as much, if not more now, a part of the problem as the Democrats and the Justices.

DISCLAIMER

My view of the American political system has turned very cynical these past few years.  When I was young, I believed what I was taught – for me that was a very republican point of view.  As I grew a little older, I found my own reasons to be a part of the Republican point of view.  And yet as I continue  to grow, I have found reasons to remove myself completely from this defunct system of having to choose between the lesser of two evils.

CONCLUSION

I don’t claim to have any answers and the manager in me is screaming, “Don’t present a problem with out having some ideas for solutions!!”  But nothing will be done unless we, the American Public, stand up and show our Government HOW TO GOVERN.  Not this comforting, feel good notion of “voting” and petitions…this just allows us to choose WHAT they talk about, not HOW they talk about it.  I will leave you with one thought and one question.

Thought : The ones we remember were not just good, they where great.  Success dies with mediocrity.

Question : How do you boil a frog? Is it getting a little warm in here?

 

Happy New Year!!

(I know, it’s late…deal with it, I’ve been busy.)

So the last quarter of 2009 was my best yet.  January is starting to look just about they same as December and November <—- positive gains…very few negative trades closed.

I say that first paragraph with a bit of superstitious caution.  As if not wanting to jinx it, I haven’t posted for a while…hoping to stay off the executioner just a little bit longer.  However, I owe my readers and myself a post about where I’ve been, what I’ve been doing and how my trading is going.  I also want to invite you, the reader, to interact with me via the comments and poll below.  Let me know how you’re doing, what you’re doing – maybe we can learn from each other.

This whole conversation is taking place while I am in a trade (-206 pips!!!!) that is loosing.  But, believe me or not, I kinda “planned”  it that way.  I will explain and hopefully by the end of this post you’ll understand, but one question first…

When you are afraid of doing something, what is the best remedy?  How do you cure that fear?

Run from it?
Ignore  it?
Blame someone else?

OR…

Face it head on and do it over and over and over again until you are desensitized to the feeling of fear?

What are you afraid of in your trading?  Losing money?  Actually taking a trade?  Margin call? Checking your account in the morning and seeing that you are -206 pips (just like I did today)?

I had (still have some) of these same fears, I faced them head on…I intentionally put myself in loosing positions to learn how to cope, deal with the initial shock and then USE my knowledge and trading ability to WORK my way out of a losing trade.  I did this so much, I no longer see a losing trade as a problem but an opportunity.

I developed my system out of losing trades.  Simple as that.  I want to caution you from moving any further and also throw up a disclaimer.  This post is just an explanation of my trading style, not a suggestion on how anyone reading this should trade.  It is very dangerous, very risky, and can blow up at anytime.

Moving on, if you have read my blog for any length of time, you can see my progression as a trader – barring some month-long hiatus’ – you can get a good idea of where I am going.  The Martingale <—- slightly more modified and adjusted to my strength’s  as a trader, but dress it up and put make up on it all you want, it’s still, at the heart, a Martingale.  If you don’t know what a Martingale is, click here, this will explain what it is and why it doesn’t work.

Into the Nitty Gritty;

What I do, is take a “Hedged” position, i.e. Long Eur/USD and Short AUD/USD.  For all intents and purposes, it is kinda a hedged position.  Then as one moves to the positive side and one to the negative – I watch.  What do I look for?  A correlated Support or Resistance Zone.  When it gets there, I close the profitable trade and double down on the losing one.  Then I move the double down trade’s Take Profit to the Break Even point for both trades.  One trip to the Break Even point and I have a position in that’s pretty much “free.”

The reason this works for me is because I am terrible at figuring out the direction of the markets.  What I am good at is identifying strong S&R lines and zones.  I have developed a very strict Money and Risk Management profile, even more strict than most, but I have turned almost all of my seemingly “unprofitable” trades into a very profitable trading style.

Please don’t get me wrong, I don’t just arbitrarily pick each side, I precisely analyse each market that I am trading in and very judiciously pick a direction that will most likely be favorable.  I have found that most of my trades stay open for about 1 to 2 weeks.

I will open the comments up for questions and critiques.  Please no outrageous  comments, but I do want to discuss this.

On a side note, I have started a business and am in the process of teaching someone the FOREX market.  Should be a profitable and experience filled 2010.

See you around the block!

 

New Poll Feature Added

 

Dec. 15th

Had a short from 1.4595 that I closed @ 1.4508.  I then switched and went long looking for Eur/USD to test the new resistance.  First @ 1.4600, then further @ 1.4800 and eventually a retest of 1.5000.  I will add to the long @ 1.4350 and then maybe start to get nervous if we break through the 1.4150 mark…

Time will tell…but I am in this for a good bit of time so it should play out nicely.

Also a great post at the FOREXfactory…Check it out here.  This is just a great example of having A LOT of tools in your tool box and using them appropriately…

 

Weekly Plan

My Trading plan this week is simple.  Wait for a bounce off of 1.4600 (EUR/USD) and wait for it to hit my sell order at 1.4750.  I know, a lot of waiting.  For you new guys out there – learn to do this and do it well…nothing will make you more money in the markets than being patient.  If we make a decisive move down further, I will enter a short below 1.4550 — but will also look to close quickly and maybe swing trade a bounce… we shall see.

Happy Trading, please comment – I love to make new friends!

 

This is how we do it…it’s Friday night…

Well, here it goes…my monthly contribution to this blog.  I am trying to keep it up to date as often as possible however LIFE seems to be getting in the way.

I have been able to steal a few minutes away this beautiful Friday morning while visiting my wife’s family in Knoxville, TN.  So, here I sit at Panera typing on our little netbook, eating a pecan roll and drinking my second cup of coffee.

During the drive down I downloaded a new book on my Barnes and Noble e-reader – “SuperFreakonomics.”  So far, 1.5 chapters in, I am thoroughly enjoying it, very entertaining and slightly educational…more novelty than fact but still a good read.  I do recommend it.

As for my trading, I couldn’t be happier.  I stuck to my guns and trusted my analysis while my short positions from 1.5100 have paid off big-time.  Would I be so proud if we were staring at 1.6200 by now? No, but I tell you what I would’ve done…I’d have added to my short position.  “You’re crazy!”, you say…In agreement, I respond,  “I’m a FOREX trader – of course I am.”

I’ll tell you what I am not, what the U.S. Government and major media networks want me to be, and are trying to make me – DUMB!  I will be honest, I don’t understand most things in this world: economics, politics, oceanic currents, etc. etc. However, one little tidbit has worked well for me and my strategy and I will share that with you here.  Get a pen and paper out, you’ll want to write this down.

Do your own analysis, trust your gut, and most of the time – you’ll do the exact opposite of what the majority is screaming and telling you to do.

Right now I feel like Matt Damon in Oceans Eleven when he says, “Basically a smash and grab job, right?” and  George Clooney responds with, “Slightly more complicated than that…”  Of course trading, life, and work is much more complicated than the simplified paragraph above this one, but build on that and you will find what I did.  A strong foundation of questioning the majority will serve you well.

Practical, recent examples – 1. Good ‘ole Bernanke talking down the dollar – don’t we have laws against Treason…not sure how they’d apply, but it should be illegal.  2. Gold @ 1140/oz,  ’nuff said.  3. U.S. Markets rallying on…um…let’s see…uh, speculation the recession might, possibly, maybe will be over sometime in the near…wait, let’s not get overzealous…we’ll just say, “in the  future?”

Not that I’m a big fan of George W, but he caught hell for “declaring” the war over in Iraq.  I think it is a bigger deal that our government has pretty much “declared” this recession over and are, I’ll say it nicely, “encouraging” us to put OUR hard earned money into an inflated, puffed up market that has yet to prove it can handle the weight, but I’m sure it’s “FINE!”

Ok, I’ll leave it there, but I am out of the market as of today with my profits in hand, looking for another opportunity to go Eur/USD short.  I would like to see a bounce of some sort actually, it has moved to far to fast and it is quite alarming…

Have a great weekend, see you around the block.

Follow me on twitter.

 

Big Gains for Dollar

Not such good news for Oil.  Oil inventories came out today with very bearish numbers.  The immediate dollar reaction was bullish but not the amount I would have expected with the types of numbers that were given.

 

I had doubled my short Eur/USD position @ 1.500 and closed that position @ 1.4900.  Original position is still open with a target to close half @  1.4800 and then the rest @ 1.4630.

 

Don’t forget to follow me on Twitter!

 

 

Top Nine…

Life insurance can be a great way to get protection for now and to plan for the future. After all, we want to make sure that our plans and loved ones are taken care of if we die.  Here are some helpful facts and ways they can help you.

1. Having enough coverage is crucial

If you need life insurance enough to buy it, you also need to make sure you’re not underinsured. It’s important not to have too little coverage, because then you won’t get the benefits you need. If you don’t think you can afford life insurance, explore your options, because it’s often cheaper than you’d expect. However, if you can’t afford all the insurance you need right now, start with a smaller amount. You should be able to buy more at a similar price when you can afford it.

2. The healthier you are, the better the rates

It’s true – healthy people get better rates on life insurance. You will be asked to pay a higher rate for anything that shortens your life expectancy (e.g., smoking, taking regular prescriptions, engaging in risky activities, and being overweight). Consider what small lifestyle changes you can make that will improve your health and possibly your rates.

3. Buying sooner rather than later can help

If you’ve been putting off purchasing life insurance because you don’t want to pay the premiums, you may be doing yourself a disservice in the long run. The younger you are when you purchase life insurance, the lower your premiums will be. In addition, it’s harder to get life insurance if you have some of the conditions that come with growing older.

4. It’s important to regularly review your coverage

The end of one year or the beginning of the next is a good time to examine your insurance needs. Any life change signals the need for a review of your overall financial plan. When it comes to life insurance, you’ll want to make sure your coverage still matches the changes you’ve made. Marriage, the birth of a child, and impending retirement can all have an effect on the insurance you need and the coverage amount that’s appropriate.

5. There are different types of life insurance

Different types of life insurance have different characteristics and are intended to accomplish different things. For instance, term life insurance is generally designed to provide the maximum amount of protection for the smallest premium dollar, but only for a set period. On the other hand, cash value life insurance offers benefits for your entire life and an investment and savings component, although at a much higher premium cost. In the majority of cases, term life insurance is the better choice.

6. You might pay more by choosing monthly premium payments

You may not realize it, but your life insurance might cost more if you pay your premium in monthly installments. Many insurance companies offer a discount if you pay your premium annually rather than monthly. Although the overall cost and benefits of the policy are more important than getting a discount, you might get a lower price by paying annually.

7. You shouldn’t rely solely on the life insurance offered by your employer

Many employers offer their employees group life insurance. However, this coverage is usually not enough to adequately meet your life insurance needs. More importantly, group life insurance policies from your employer are not portable, meaning that if you leave your job, you lose your life insurance coverage.

8. You should tell the whole truth and nothing but the truth

If you lie or omit information on a life insurance application, your life insurance company may be able to terminate your coverage. They may also be able to charge you for the higher premiums you should have been paying, or deny claims. For this reason, make sure to answer all questions fully. There are many different life insurance companies, and even if you don’t qualify for the best rate from one of them, you may still be able to get a good rate from another.

9. Buying more can be cheaper

Life insurance usually costs progressively less per thousand dollars at higher coverage amounts (e.g., $250,000). That means doubling your coverage generally won’t double your premium. If your life insurance needs increase, be sure to explore your options. It may not cost as much as you think to buy more coverage.