Still here.

Still alive.  I moved (again.) Started a new job. Got a new puppy (almost a full-time job.) Remodeling our entire house. Way to close to launching a new business. Busy, just like the rest of you.

In case you are wondering, I am still VERY bearish on the Eur/Usd.  For many different reasons.  In fact, even more-so since my several posts in the recent past where I was selling.

FYI – The Philadelphia Union are in first place in the Eastern Conference…GO UUUUUNNIIIOOOOON… #doop

Keep it real. Keep it profitable. Keep it fun.

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EUR/USD Outlook Week of 2/14

HAPPY VALENTINES DAY!  I am spending plenty of time with the love of my love, then later with my wife :) I am just kidding of course, trading always comes second to my beautiful wife, Love you babe!

In other news,  here is my general EUR/USD outlook.

Below are 3 charts of the EUR/USD in three different timeframes (Monthly, Weekly, 4 Hour).

I am trading from a bear biased point of view.  The jump up to 1.3850, in my opinion, was a bull trap that cleared the way to focus on new lows.  The 3 Weekly Pinn Bars are very telling about the lack of push behind a significant bull move.  The Monthly charts are printing consistent Lower Highs and Lower Lows…

The 1 Hour chart just printed a very nice looking Pinn Bar, I am Currently short.

 

Outlook on Gold

Items to note –

  1. Very basic rounded top forming (yellow circle)
  2. Three failed attempts to stay above $1400.00 (top red line)
  3. Break and retest of rising trendline (purple line)
  4. Room to run down before minor support @ 1330ish (middle red line) and then major support @  1260  (lower red line)

However, Gold has defied all odds and all major “Top” calls.  I am short Gold, but I am also being cautious and using only 1/2 a position with an order for the other 1/2 @ 1400.

What ever you decide to do, be careful.

HAPPY HOLIDAYS

I will be taking an extended break from blogging and trading for the month of December.  I have a lot of traveling to do and I don’t like to trade while distracted.  My current positions are Short GOLD and Short the EURO.  I will only be checking the charts to make sure these trades are doing well.

See you after the new year!

Weekly Wrap up

So it turns out I wasn’t completely wrong, just a little early.  Below are my current positions and closed trades. These are all for the Eur/Jpy…

Open Trades –
1/4 Lot (Long) @ 112.28, TP @ 115.37, No SL
1/2 Lot (Long) @ 111.10, TP @ 112.00, No SL

Closed Trades –
1 Lot (Long) @ 110.70, TP @ 112.60 (Hit), No SL – (+51 pips)
1 Lot (Long) @ 109.60, TP @ 110.25, No SL – (+122 pips)
2 Lot (Long) @ 108.27, TP @ 109.57, No SL – (+64 pips)
2 Lot (Long) @ 107.66, TP @ 108.93 (Hit), No SL – (+144 pips)
1 Lot (Long) @ 109.62, TP @ 110.25, No SL – (-3 pips)

Total pips for the week: +378, adjusted to a standard 1 Lot +543

Weekly Plan 6/28

On the EURJPY, we are in a range.  Since the beginning of last week we have gone from 111.00 to 109.50 consistently.  We are currently at the bottom of the range @ 109.50 and I am a buyer (again.) I know that I had said I would like to join the short party, but for some reason I just can’t find many opportunities (real great opportunities) to get in on the short side of things.

My current positions:

Current Positions –

Open Trades –
1/4 Lot (Long) @ 112.28, TP @ 115.37, No SL
1/2 Lot (Long) @ 11.10, TP @ 112.00, No SL
1 Lot (Long) @ 109.60, TP @ 110.25, No SL

Closed Trades –
1 Lot (Long) @ 110.70, TP @ 112.60 (Hit), No SL

No Open Orders

Wait, draw on my charts by hand?!? YES!

So, I’ve been thinking of FINALLY joining in on EURO short party.  The music’s louder, the drinks are made just a bit stronger, I can hear people laughing…yes, I think I will join the party.

So, I’ve discovered that blogging with any frequency is difficult when I set up weekly (monthly) trading plans and wait for them to trigger.  Not to mention that once my plan is initiated, it doesn’t change much.  What should I write about??!!?? I don’t know, but I will write on here as best I can…I am trying to at least once a week.

I’ll give you another peek into my thought process as I am looking at the week(s) to come.

Check out the Chart first, print it out…get a ruler and a protractor.  That’s right, it is time to do some hand charting, I don’t do this every time, but it really helps me connect to the charts – removes the complexity of the computer, the clicking of the mouse, and the distractions of Facebook and twitter.  If you are losing money and feel out of tune with the markets, print them out and draw on them, even if it’s nonsense, it will help – I promise.

First,I  identify the areas of Support and Resistance on the weekly chart – S&R can be anything from where price stops and turns several times or where there is excess congestion before a breach of a certain line or price.  Whole numbers are important, but I find in the JPY crosses that the xxx.50’s are important too.  Then I check for Divergence between Price and the MACD.  Did Price make a new low but the MACD didn’t, if so then I qualify if and then quantify the discrepancy.  I draw my trend lines and my “anticipated” movement for the following week.  I always take into account the Fundamentals that are upcoming as well as what kind of correlation the 65 EMA is giving me with my S&R and Trendlines.

The only missing piece is how I draw my FIBs – I use Fib Retracement and Fib Fan.  I will explain these later since I don’t do them by hand and the way I draw them is extremely difficult to explain with a keyboard and mouse.  I will try, but tonight it is late and I am off to bed.

Print out the charts (or your own) and draw on them – I’d love to see what some people come up with.  Send me a comment if you will share them me, it would be much appreciated.  Also, let me know your experience with hand charting – I am sure it will open your eyes!