Drop All of Your Preconceived Ideas of … everything?

Ok, I am not saying that Bear or Bull markets don’t exist or that they don’t have a distinct look to them.  I am saying this, “IT DOESN’T MATTER.”

I have been a self-proclaimed “bear” since, at least, January this year and from about 1.3100 on the E/U.  What’s funny about this is we spent the majority of 2011 above the 1.40 mark.  All I can do is laugh.  Another example is I have initiated 237 short trades and only 23 long trades this year.  How am I not broke you ask?

Simple. Bears make money in Bull markets and Bulls make money in Bear markets.  This is one of the reasons I don’t listen to market commentators or take trading advice from other traders or the recommendations of OANDA or live my life according to a set of rules established my others.  A lot of people would have you believe that you have to be a Bear in a Bear market or a Bull in a Bull market, otherwise, you’ll get caught with your pants down as well as your account balance.

I guess what I am trying to say is this, it’s not the fact that you correctly “read” the trend or deciphered the chart so well that the side you picked was the right one. (When you stop caring if you are right, you’ll know you are on the right track.) The fact of the matter is this, if you get in at the right time and out at the righter time while not letting the market keep any of your money, it doesn’t matter what direction the last 1,500 bars were moving.

I started out as a very “by the books,” money management, risk/reward ratio nut job. I would argue that technical analysis was the only true was to make a dime in this industry, those fundies could go jump off a bridge for all I cared. Then I started listening to what was going on in the world from sources OTHER than traders and news anchors.  I slowly started shifting to a hybrid-method, adapting micro and macro economics into my trade plan.  I would beat the dead horse of having to have a stop-loss and take-profit in place with a 1:3 risk/reward ratio…then I would lose 2% of my account every trade.  I listened to everyone when they said a Martingale approach is suicide.  I listened to people when they said “trade with the trend, it’s the only way to make money.”  I lost money hand over fist for a year and a half.  I couldn’t give it away fast enough.

I gave up trading. I started observing. I really don’t know how to explain it.  A blogging buddy (@andrewunknown) just started a new blog about minimalism trading and he has a much better way with words so I’ll let him describe the theory of it.

Sometimes it is better to do something then nothing.  In other words, stop over-analyzing the situation and make a decision.  Stick with that decision until you see a reason it isn’t valid any more.

What I am trying to say is this, (and I have been beating a dead horse) don’t listen to anyone when it comes to your trading.  Trade what you see based on a system that you have developed.  And if you do start to take any advice at all, take this guys advice first.

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AUD/USD Outlook.

Below is a brief snapshot of what I am looking at with the Aussie.

A lot going on here, but it really all comes down to how strong you think the US Dollar will perform over the next few months.  My bias is bullish on the Dollar…

Answer to Comment in last post

I am not seeing these setups and trends on my charts.

And as you point out, EURJPY has gone short a lot since June 28 0800 EET or so.

What chart time frame shows you the range you describe? I don’t see it. Thank you

Thank you for the comment and question Dave, I am excited to be able to explain what I mean. However, please take a look at the 2 charts I have posted as they are instrumental in my explanation.  In fact, you may want to open them in a new screen or print them out so you can refer to them.

Ok, so the first chart you see (should be the EJ Daily) shows that the EJ has been in a free fall since the end of  October 2009.  That is a bit longer than since June 28th like you mentioned.  The reason I show this is because I am a medium term swing trader, I don’t sell in the middle of a down trend unless I can get a REALLY great deal and an obvious area of resistance.  What excites me about being long right now is that we have been short for so long.  The blue lines on the chart are the areas of  Support and Resistance that I feel are important.  Between the S&R lines of 113.20 (R) and 108.00 (S) is a great deal of “congestion,” even in the middle of the range – if I am going to sell a pair, I am going to do it at 113, but most certainly not at 108.

The next chart should be the EJ 1 hour chart.  The grey part is the range I had mentioned in my previous post – I tried to buy at the bottom of it, but unfortunately for me, price decided to pay it no mind.  So I am in a losing trade, what should I do?  Close it and take it on the chin?  Or find my next area of support that I feel is strong enough to cause a retracement and add to my position (scaling in of course at the pace of doubling my position size).

I hope this helps and I would be more than happy to answer any other questions you might have about my style of trading.  Thanks for stopping by!

Wrapping up for the Week

Current Positions –

Open Trades –
1/4 Lot (Long) @ 111.45, TP @ 113.37, No SL
1/2 Lot (Long) @ 110.00, TP @ 110.48, No SL

Closed Trades –
1/2 Lot (Long) @ 109.58, TP @ 110.15 (Hit), No SL

No Open Orders

Profit for the week – Full lot pips (190), Half lot pips (-20) = Total pips +170 (total adjusted to Lot size +180)

5/27 Update and Review

Slowly starting to pare back my positions as the weekend approaches. Usually I don’t mind leaving some “smaller” positions open, but the full lots and double lots I like to have closed. Unless of course there is an obviously blatant reason to leave them open.

Yesterday was a good day. Total of 187 pips.

Current Positions open –
1/4 Lot (Long) @ 119.26, TP @ 113.71 (I know the TP is lower then the original entry, I am satisfied with this, read below to find out why.)
1/2 Lot (Long) @ 110.63 – TP @ 113.49, SL @ 110.55 (I will trade with a tight Stop Loss when we near the weekend)

As for why I am happy to close out my 1/4 lot with -550 pip loss – Since I opened it on May 10th, I have gained over 1000 pips with an average position size of 3/4 of a Lot. My total pip loss will be 550 pips @ 1/4 Lot size…this is something I can easily absorb. This weekend I will get into my method a bit more.

Thanks!

5/26 Open Positions and Orders

Eur/Jpy:

1/4 Lot (Long) @ 119.26 (this is my starter position, I’ll explain what I mean in my next post.)
1/2 Lot (Long) @ 110.97 – BE @ 113.73, no SL, TP @ 113.73 (BE)

1 Lot Order (Long) @ 109.05

Yesterday, we saw a decent retrace back up.  I thought about closing all of my longs and switching to a short position, but I really like the “buy the dips” strategy right now and am sticking to it.  My feeling is to let the divergence on the MACD play out until the end of the month.  My FIB study leads me to believe that the last bounce from 109 is fairly strong support and will lead to a retrace to 114 by the end of the month as well.